AAL

AAL AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+80

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 10, 2026

conviction

Bullish(high)

AAL's fundamentals show robust cash flow growth (+71.9% YoY to $4.2B) and consistent earnings outperformance (3/4 quarters beat, +16.2% last quarter). Analysts target $16 (18.2% upside) with a 12B/12H/1S split, supporting a re-rating. Despite short-term options volatility, the business case for sustained margin expansion remains intact.

+51

+66

+80

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+75

AAL demonstrates robust cash flow growth (YoY +71.9% to $4.2B) and consistent earnings outperformance (3/4 quarters beat, +16.2% last Q). Analysts target $16 (18.2% upside) with 12B/12H/1S split.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeLegal Proceedings — significant changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — significant changes
EarningsEPS surprise: 16.2% (est -0.48, actual -0.40)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $16
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 12 buy, 12 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell

Options AgentNeutral

-9

Options flow analysis: IV at 0.0% percentile (52-week). P/C ratio: 2.00. Detected unusual volume activity (volume > 3x open interest). ATM mispricing detected (call: -6.3%, put: 8.8%).

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 0.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.97

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Expression status: tradable

This signal passed the expression gate and has a trade plan attached.

Policy linkage: direct company evidenceMechanism quality: absentPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

Trade Plan

Live Return

$12.79-4.2%

Entry: $13.35 · 3d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$13.00

$13.75

Valid until Nov 10, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$16.00+25.1%

Analyst consensus target with 18.2% upside

Base

$15.00+17.3%

Conservative estimate of cash flow re-rating

Bear

$12.00-6.2%

Breakdown of margin expansion and capacity discipline

Stop Loss

$12.50

-2.3%

Position Size

3-5%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.9x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.