AMZN

AMZN AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction+18

1/0

Mar 28, 2026

conviction

Bullish(low)

Amazon's $139.5B operating cash flow growing 20.4% YoY provides a durable fundamental anchor, but a 3.0% EPS miss in the most recent quarter signals near-term execution friction. Options flow is the strongest near-term signal, with $41.9M in net bullish sweeps versus only $690K bearish over 48 hours and a call-heavy volume skew, though ATM call mispricing of 57.9% and IV running 1.33x realized volatility suggest the market is pricing upside expensively. Institutional data is structurally unreliable due to data anomalies including an invalid quarter label and a near-total collapse in reported AUM, making it impossible to draw conclusions from that signal. The 6-month horizon is the most credible window for the cash flow thesis to reassert itself, while the 1-month outlook remains pressured by the earnings miss and rich options premiums.

+13

+18

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+12

AMZN shows strong operating cash flow of $139.5B (+20.4% YoY) which is a genuinely positive signal, but the most recent quarter saw a 3.0% EPS miss that tempers near-term enthusiasm; 3 of 4 prior quarters beat estimates reflects solid but not exceptional execution. Forensic accounting is clean with no flags, and filing similarity rates (MDA 62-67%, business 90%) suggest stable but not transformative business narrative.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — minor changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
EarningsEPS miss: $1.95 vs $2.01 est (-3.0%)
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 21 strong buy, 50 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBearish

-85

The data contains critical anomalies that render it unreliable as a bullish signal: '2025-Q10' is not a valid calendar quarter, and a QoQ value change of -99.6% alongside only 5 total institutional holders with $5.3B AUM represents a catastrophically thin and deteriorating ownership base for a mega-cap like AMZN. The 'consistent accumulation' trend label contradicts the near-total value collapse, and the three flagged 'NEW' holders are small regional or boutique firms whose combined positions are immaterial relative to AMZN's market cap.

Sources

13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 5247626 shares ($1151276668K) +5247626 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 5499674 shares ($992031196K) +5499674 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 4958927 shares ($958312643K) +4958927 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 5030760 shares ($937381511K) +5030760 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 752683 shares ($165131123K) +752683 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+52

Dominant bullish signal comes from 2 sweeps totaling $41.9M net bullish flow against only $690K in bearish sweeps over 48 hours, paired with a call-heavy volume ratio of 0.56 (599K calls vs 334K puts) and negative put-call IV spread of -2.58% indicating elevated demand for upside exposure. However, IV30D at 34.8% running 1.33x realized volatility with 57.9% ATM call mispricing suggests options are richly priced on the call side, tempering conviction and raising the cost of directional bets.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 37.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.33

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$199.34-0.9%

Entry: $201.10 · 0d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$197.00

$203.00

Valid until Apr 11, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$235.00+17.9%

Re-rating on sustained AWS growth and operating leverage driving multiple expansion toward 52-week highs

Base

$218.00+9.4%

Cash flow compounding at 20%+ YoY supports gradual price appreciation in line with earnings power over 6 months

Bear

$185.00-7.2%

EPS miss trend continuation or macro deterioration compresses multiple back toward $185 support

Stop Loss

$190.00

-4.7%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.8x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.