ASML

ASML AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+34

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 10, 2026

conviction

Bullish(medium)

Strong institutional buying ($10M in Q1 2026 inflows from Washington Trust and CONNABLE Office) supports near-term bullish momentum despite mixed fundamentals. Analysts project a 45% downside to $876, but clean accounting and consistent institutional accumulation suggest resilience in execution.

+40

+45

+34

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

+25

Mixed quarterly performance with 7.1% EPS beat in Q4 but only 2/4 beats overall. Analysts target $876 (45% downside) despite 10B/23H consensus. Clean accounting offsets inconsistent earnings execution.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — minor changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — significant changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
EarningsEPS beat: $7.15 vs $6.67 est (+7.1%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $876
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 1 strong buy, 22 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBullish

+80

Institutions added $10M in ASML exposure (70082.6% QoQ increase) through 2 new entrants and 3 new positions in Q1 2026, with Washington Trust Advisors ($6M) and CONNABLE Office ($2M) driving the bulk of accumulation. Consistent 2-quarter bullish trend with no redemptions.

Sources

13F HoldingWashington Trust Advisors, Inc. (CIK 0001900099): 4580 shares ($6049K) +4580 [NEW]
13F HoldingCONNABLE OFFICE INC (CIK 0000914933): 1660 shares ($2192K) +1660 [NEW]
13F HoldingIMA Advisory Services, Inc. (CIK 0001455495): 1410 shares ($1862K) +1410 [NEW]
13F HoldingNISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC (CIK 0000937615): 245 shares ($323K) +245 [NEW]
13F HoldingWashington Trust Advisors, Inc. (CIK 0001900099): 64 shares ($84K) +64 [NEW]

Options AgentBearish

-35

Bearish flow events dominated 48-hour period with $177M net bearish sweeps, despite higher call volume. Put OI exceeds calls by 23% and IV

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 74.4% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.96

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Not tradable yet

The policy evidence is too sector-level and does not tie cleanly enough to this company.

Policy linkage: sector-only evidenceMechanism quality: vaguePolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.