ASTS

ASTS AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

-18

Direction mix

0 bullish1 bearish

May 10, 2026

conviction

Bearish(low)

ASTS exhibits deteriorating fundamentals with 59.3% EPS miss and zero earnings beats in four quarters, compounded by $20.8M in insider sales with zero purchases. While institutional buying and options bullishness suggest short-term volatility, the analyst price target of $66 (12.5% downside) and operational risks (24% legal exposure) outweigh technical optimism.

-25

-22

-18

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-70

ASTS has missed EPS by 59.3% in latest quarter with 0/4 quarters beating estimates. Analysts price target ($66) is 12.5% below current price with 3B/4H/2S. Legal proceedings (24% similar to peers) and high risk factor similarity (72%) suggest operational/corporate risks

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeLegal Proceedings — significant changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — minor changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
EarningsEPS surprise: -59.3% (est -0.16, actual -0.26)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $66
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 3 buy, 4 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBearish

-75

Insiders executed $20.838M in sales with 0 purchases over 90 days, including a 54,687-share award-to-sale by the COO. The complete absence of buying activity combined with a single large executive sale raises concerns about near-term fundamentals.

Sources

Insider TradeRakuten Mobile, Inc. sell 1690000 shares
Insider TradeGupta Shanti B. award 54687 shares

Institutional AgentBullish

+85

Institutions added 30 new holders while maintaining 7/7-quarter bullish trend, with 3 new positions exceeding $6M and no large decreases. Zero bearish quarters and consistent accumulation despite -82.1% QOQ value decline suggests contrarian buying at discounted levels.

Sources

13F HoldingHSBC HOLDINGS PLC (CIK 0000873630): 1225000 shares ($90147K) +1225000 [NEW]
13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 1051900 shares ($76399K) +1051900 [NEW]
13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 795163 shares ($57752K) +795163 [NEW]
13F HoldingPEAK6 LLC (CIK 0001389958): 1067100 shares ($52373K) +914400
13F HoldingPEAK6 LLC (CIK 0001389958): 599900 shares ($43570K) +599900 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+75

Strong call volume dominance (P/C 0.34) and $203.5M in bullish sweeps indicate aggressive positioning. High IV30 (118.2%) and 23 call contracts with volume >3x OI suggest short-term volatility demand. Accumulation patterns (2 bullish days, +4876K OI) support medium-term conviction.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 89.7% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.22

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$75.82+1.0%

Entry: $75.05 · 3d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$73.00

$77.00

Valid until Jun 10, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$80.00+5.5%

Options IV30 at 118% creates short-term volatility ceiling

Base

$66.00-13.0%

Analyst price target of $66 aligns with 12.5% downside from current price

Bear

$60.00-20.9%

Legal risks and 24% peer similarity could trigger accelerated downside

Stop Loss

$80.00

+5.5%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.8x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.