CAT

CAT AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+15

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 12, 2026

conviction

Bullish(low)

CAT's short-term technicals and insider confidence outweigh fundamental headwinds. Options buying pressure ($26.9M bullish sweeps) and insider purchases ($215K) suggest near-term optimism, despite weak gross margins (-23.5% YoY) and overvaluation (analyst target $795, 12.4% below $908).

+23

+22

+15

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-40

CAT shows declining gross profit (-23.5% YoY) and volatile operating cash flow (-84.1% QoQ despite +45.1% YoY), indicating margin pressure and operational instability. EPS beat but analyst target ($795) is 12.4% below current price, suggesting overvaluation.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
EarningsEPS beat: $5.54 vs $4.66 est (+18.8%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $795
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 13 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBullish

+70

1 insider open-market purchases ($215K total) vs 0 sales suggest confidence in the company.

Sources

Insider TradeEpley Kyle Joseph award 515 shares
Insider TradeMacLennan David buy 250 shares

Institutional AgentBullish

+30

Four institutions added new positions in Q1 2026 with total $18M in holdings, though share percentage changes were neutral at 0.0% for all entries. New institutional participation suggests tentative accumulation but lacks conviction due to flat ownership percentages.

Sources

13F HoldingFirst Financial Bank - Trust Division (CIK 0001315339): 18061 shares ($12795K) +18061 [NEW]
13F HoldingEthos Financial Group, LLC (CIK 0001954242): 3292 shares ($2128K) +3292 [NEW]
13F HoldingWashington Trust Advisors, Inc. (CIK 0001900099): 2636 shares ($1867K) +2636 [NEW]
13F HoldingFirst Financial Bank - Trust Division (CIK 0001315339): 332 shares ($235K) +332 [NEW]
13F HoldingFirst Financial Bank - Trust Division (CIK 0001315339): 134 shares ($94K) +134 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+35

Bullish sweeps ($26.9M) outweigh bearish flows ($228K) in 48h, with OI rising +1658K over 22 days. Low IV30D (37.5%) at

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 31.8% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.78

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$912.14+0.5%

Entry: $908.05 · 0d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$900.00

$920.00

Valid until Jun 12, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$950.00+4.2%

Options buying pressure and 12-month technical resistance breakout

Base

$940.00+3.1%

Mean reversion to 50-day SMA ($932) with insider buying support

Bear

$890.00-2.4%

Analyst target alignment and 14% downside to fundamental fair value

Stop Loss

$890.00

-2.4%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.5x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.