COF

COF AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+44

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 6, 2026

conviction

Bullish(medium)

Capital One presents a compelling case for medium-term growth driven by institutional accumulation (13 institutions added positions over 4 quarters) and attractive valuation metrics (20.4% mean target premium). Forensic accounting confirms clean financials, and 21/26 analysts rate the stock positively. While recent EPS miss (-3.9%) and zero insider purchases raise caution, the 4-quarter institutional buying streak and strong balance sheet fundamentals outweigh near-term concerns.

+33

+44

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+55

Analysts project 20.4% upside with 21/26 positive ratings. Recent EPS miss (-3.9%) offsets 2/4 quarter beat streak, but forensic accounting (100/100) confirms clean financials. Valuation remains attractive with 20.4% mean target premium.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
EarningsEPS miss: $4.42 vs $4.60 est (-3.9%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $228
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 21 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBearish

-60

Zero insider purchases vs 1 sell ($31K) in 90 days indicates lack of buying confidence. Single executive sale lacks conviction but absence of buying is more concerning.

Sources

Insider TradeDean Lia sell 1692 shares
Insider TradeCooper Matthew W award 8239 shares

Institutional AgentBullish

+58

Institutional accumulation detected: 13 institutions tracked across 4 quarters. 22 new positions initiated. Institutional accumulation streak: 4 consecutive quarters.

Sources

13F HoldingNISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC (CIK 0000937615): 254323 shares ($46396K) +254323 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 177435 shares ($31640K) +177435 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 154615 shares ($23150K) +154615 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 156315 shares ($21641K) +156315 [NEW]
13F HoldingEthic Inc. (CIK 0001780570): 80373 shares ($14662K) +80373 [NEW]

Options AgentNeutral

Options flow analysis: IV at 10.7% percentile (52-week). P/C ratio: 0.44. Detected unusual volume activity (volume > 3x open interest). ATM mispricing detected (call: 11.5%, put: -5.6%).

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 10.7% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.03

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$183.93-3.0%

Entry: $189.68 · 6d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$185.00

$195.00

Valid until Aug 6, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$229.00+24.5%

20.4% mean analyst target price

Base

$210.00+14.2%

10% price appreciation from entry midpoint

Bear

$171.00-7.0%

25% downside to align with 12-month lows

Stop Loss

$175.00

-4.9%

Position Size

2-3%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.3x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.