COHR

COHR AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction+28

1/0

Mar 27, 2026

conviction

Bullish(low)

Coherent Corp posted a modest 4.7% EPS beat with a clean four-quarter streak, but the 69.5% YoY collapse in operating cash flow to $104M raises serious questions about earnings quality that prevent a high-conviction bullish stance. Institutional interest is notable — Goldman Sachs established a large new position and net five new institutions entered in the latest quarter — though data anomalies in the filing reduce confidence in the magnitude of that signal. Options flow shows a net bullish tilt with 11 bullish sweeps versus 9 bearish, but a 3.38% put-heavy IV skew and elevated ATM put mispricing at 9.8% suggest sophisticated participants are hedging downside risk meaningfully. The setup warrants a small, cautious long position contingent on cash flow stabilization in the next earnings report.

+26

+29

+28

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

COHR shows a modest 4.7% EPS beat with a clean 4/4 beat streak, but operating cash flow collapsed 69.5% YoY to $104M — a severe deterioration that undermines earnings quality and raises questions about sustainability of reported profits. The QoQ cash flow recovery of 126% is encouraging but insufficient to offset the magnitude of the annual decline.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
EarningsEPS beat: $1.29 vs $1.23 est (+4.7%)
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 8 strong buy, 13 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBullish

+52

COHR shows a 7-quarter streak of bullish institutional signals with a dramatic +1,455.7% QoQ value increase and net +5 new institutions entering in the latest quarter, led by Goldman Sachs establishing a $343,461M position; however, the data contains anomalies (2025-Q10 is a non-standard quarter label, Goldman Sachs appearing twice as a top holder, and +0.0% share count changes despite massive dollar increases) that reduce confidence in the raw figures and temper the bullish read.

Sources

13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 1860876 shares ($343461889K) +1860876 [NEW]
13F HoldingPEAK6 LLC (CIK 0001389958): 384300 shares ($70930251K) +384300 [NEW]
13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 366066 shares ($67564802K) +366066 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 335205 shares ($29803078K) +335205 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 329753 shares ($23893902K) +329753 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

Net bullish flow of $115K over 48 hours driven by 11 bullish sweeps versus 9 bearish sweeps, with call volume (22,587) modestly outpacing puts (21,074) at a 0.93 P/C ratio; however, a 3.38% put-heavy IV skew and ATM put mispricing of 9.8% versus 3.1% for calls indicate meaningful demand for downside protection that tempers conviction.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 53.6% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.06

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$243.48-10.5%

Entry: $272.04 · 1d elapsed / 90d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$264.00

$275.00

Valid until Apr 10, 2026

Price Targets (90-day)

Bull

$320.00+31.4%

Re-rating on cash flow recovery confirmation and continued institutional accumulation driving multiple expansion toward sector peers.

Base

$295.00+21.2%

Modest appreciation reflecting EPS beat streak and institutional inflows if cash flow stabilizes in next quarterly report.

Bear

$248.00+1.9%

Thesis invalidation if cash flow deterioration persists, triggering institutional de-risking and multiple compression to prior support.

Stop Loss

$255.00

+4.7%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.6x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.