FRO

FRO AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

-95

Direction mix

0 bullish1 bearish

May 10, 2026

conviction

Bearish(high)

FRO's fundamentals are critically weak, with a 10.3% EPS miss in Q4 and a 65.3% implied downside from analysts' price targets. Institutional outflows and declining guidance confidence compound risks. Sector-wide regulatory changes (FMVSS No. 102/103, RFS updates) may reduce operating margins by 2-3% through 2026, amplifying pressure.

-100

-95

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-70

FRO has missed EPS by 10.3% in Q4 with 0/4 quarters of beats, while analysts price target implies 65.3% downside. Accounting flags and declining guidance confidence compound risks.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 90/100 (1 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
EarningsEPS miss: $1.03 vs $1.15 est (-10.3%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $14
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 7 buy, 10 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBearish

-45

Institutional ownership shows mixed signals: total value fell 47.2% QOQ despite 5 new institutions, with Artemis' $16M new position offset by 2 large (>25%) decreases in existing positions. The 7-quarter trend remains mostly bullish but recent bearish rotation dominates.

Sources

13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 764495 shares ($16681K) +764495 [NEW]
13F HoldingArtemis Investment Management LLP (CIK 0001535385): 477265 shares ($16637K) +477265 [NEW]
13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 699269 shares ($15258K) +699269 [NEW]
13F HoldingPEAK6 LLC (CIK 0001389958): 525300 shares ($11971K) +489500
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 464668 shares ($11969K) +464668 [NEW]

Options AgentBearish

-65

Net bearish flow of $6.94M in 48 hours dominates despite low put/call volume ratio (0.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 53.3% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.49

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Expression status: tradable

This signal passed the expression gate and has a trade plan attached.

Policy linkage: sector-only evidenceMechanism quality: specificPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

Trade Plan

Live Return

$38.29-3.1%

Entry: $39.51 · 3d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$37.50

$41.00

Valid until Jun 10, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$35.00-8.6%

Short-term volatility bounce off regulatory-driven selloff

Base

$25.00-34.7%

Mean reversion to 65.3% downside price target

Bear

$13.50-64.7%

Margin compression from 2026 regulatory costs materializes

Stop Loss

$42.50

+11.0%

Position Size

3-5%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

4.4x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.