INTC

INTC AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

-51

Direction mix

0 bullish1 bearish

May 11, 2026

conviction

Bearish(medium)

Intel faces immediate demand headwinds from federal semiconductor procurement bans (15-20% revenue loss) and Chinese market restrictions, despite 1971% EPS beat. Analysts price in 49.5% downside vs current levels, suggesting severe overvaluation. Institutional accumulation contradicts bearish fundamentals, but policy risks dominate near-term thesis.

-51

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-60

INTC shows conflicting signals: 1971.4% EPS beat and 14.4% YoY gross profit growth contrast with a 70.9% QoQ gross profit collapse. Analysts price in 49.5% downside vs current levels, suggesting severe overvaluation despite clean accounting.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
EarningsEPS beat: $0.29 vs $0.01 est (+1971.4%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $63
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 9 buy, 23 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBullish

+35

Institutional accumulation detected: 171 institutions tracked across 2 quarters. 196 new positions initiated.

Sources

13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 15264975 shares ($563277K) +15264975 [NEW]
13F HoldingCALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM (CIK 0000919079): 12386924 shares ($546634K) +12386924 [NEW]
13F HoldingHSBC HOLDINGS PLC (CIK 0000873630): 7704811 shares ($284307K) +7704811 [NEW]
13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 5155800 shares ($190249K) +5155800 [NEW]
13F HoldingPEAK6 LLC (CIK 0001389958): 3821200 shares ($141002K) +3821200 [NEW]

Options AgentBearish

-65

Net bearish flow of $1.59B in 48h sweeps and 99 puts with >3x OI volume suggest institutional hedging or profit-taking. IV at 95% (52W 95th percentile) implies elevated volatility expectations, but ATM put mispricing (10.4%) signals potential undervaluation vs calls.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 95.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.04

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Expression status: tradable

This signal passed the expression gate and has a trade plan attached.

Policy linkage: inferred company relevanceMechanism quality: specific

Trade Plan

Live Return

$120.61-3.5%

Entry: $124.92 · 1d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Above entry

$115.00

$120.00

Valid until Jun 15, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$135.00+11.9%

Options IV decay below 80% and reversal of policy restrictions

Base

$105.00-12.9%

Federal procurement restrictions fully materialize with 49.5% downside baked in

Bear

$85.00-29.5%

Chinese market access lost + 70.9% QoQ gross profit decline persists

Stop Loss

$125.00

+3.6%

Position Size

2-3%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.7x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.