LLY

LLY AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

Direction mix

0 bullish0 bearish

May 12, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

LLY [neutral, low confidence]: LLY shows strong YoY operating cash flow growth (220.2% to $5.3B) and consistent earnings beats (4/4 quarters), but QoQ cash flow collapsed 68.3%. Analysts are optimistic (26B/2H/0S) with a $1158 target 19.8% above price. Risks include Lomond Therapeutics' deteriorating outlook and volatile cash flow metrics. LLY insiders have executed 0 purchases vs 1 sale ($3.524M) in 90 days, with no buying activity since Apr 2026 (likely a data error, actual likely 2024). Cluster buying by 3 executives in Apr 2024 lacks recent follow-through, suggesting waning confidence. 25 recent policy developments affect this sector. Recent flow events show net bearish $184M over 48 hours with 9 bearish sweeps dwarfing bullish activity. IV30D (34.3%) remains below HV30D (43.8%) despite rising OI (+1883K contracts in 22 days), suggesting underpriced volatility ahead of potential catalysts. ATM options mispricing (-17.6%/-19.2%) indicates potential for near-term revaluation.

-23

-6

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

+40

LLY shows strong YoY operating cash flow growth (220.2% to $5.3B) and consistent earnings beats (4/4 quarters), but QoQ cash flow collapsed 68.3%. Analysts are optimistic (26B/2H/0S) with a $1158 target 19.8% above price. Risks include Lomond Therapeutics' deteriorating outlook and volatile cash flow metrics.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 85/100 (1 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
AI AnalysisLLM analysis: escalating, tone shift -4.5
EarningsEPS beat: $8.55 vs $6.73 est (+27.0%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $1158
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 26 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBearish

-30

LLY insiders have executed 0 purchases vs 1 sale ($3.524M) in 90 days, with no buying activity since Apr 2026 (likely a data error, actual likely 2024). Cluster buying by 3 executives in Apr 2024 lacks recent follow-through, suggesting waning confidence.

Sources

Insider TradeLILLY ENDOWMENT INC sell 13620 shares
Insider TradeFyrwald J Erik award 0 shares
Insider TradeAlvarez Ralph award 0 shares
Insider TradeSulzberger Gabrielle award 0 shares

Options AgentBearish

-40

Recent flow events show net bearish $184M over 48 hours with 9 bearish sweeps dwarfing bullish activity. IV30D (34.3%) remains below HV30D (43.8%) despite rising OI (+1883K contracts in 22 days), suggesting underpriced volatility ahead of potential catalysts. ATM options mispricing (-17.6%/-19.2%) indicates potential for near-term revaluation.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 27.3% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.78

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Not tradable yet

The policy signal lacks a specific causal mechanism, so it should not be treated as expression-ready.

Policy linkage: inferred company relevanceMechanism quality: absentPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.