MSFT

MSFT AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

Unlock full MSFT analysis View pricing

Signals

Avg conviction

+78

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 8, 2026

conviction

Bullish(high)

Microsoft's 16.6% YoY gross profit growth ($165B) and 26% cloud/AI acceleration provide strong fundamental support. Options data shows $3.1B in bullish sweeps and a 0.44 put/call ratio, indicating aggressive accumulation. Analyst price targets suggest +34.9% upside potential to $568 despite mixed institutional flows.

+74

+81

+78

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+70

MSFT's gross profit grew 16.6% YoY to $165B with 51.5% QoQ acceleration, supported by 26% YoY cloud/AI growth. All-time EPS beat streak and 34/3H analyst target ($568, +34.9%) indicate strong conviction despite 0% guidance hit rate.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — significant changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
AI AnalysisLLM analysis: stable, tone shift 6.2
EarningsEPS beat: $4.27 vs $4.14 est (+3.1%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $568
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 34 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell
Call TranscriptEarnings call sentiment: 0.90, deflections: 0
CredibilityManagement credibility: 0/100

Institutional AgentNeutral

Mixed institutional signals: $9.6B new entry by Fisher Asset Management (neutral % change) offsets 2 large (>25%) exits. No net accumulation/distribution in 2026-Q1, with top new holders showing $0% ownership drift despite share additions.

Sources

13F HoldingFisher Asset Management, LLC (CIK 0000850529): 25941594 shares ($9602800K) +25941594 [NEW]
13F HoldingLansforsakringar Fondforvaltning AB (publ) (CIK 0002059323): 2697368 shares ($998479K) +2697368 [NEW]
13F HoldingTRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC, TFC-PI, TFC-PO, TFC-PR) (CIK 0000092230): 2255843 shares ($835045K) +2255843 [NEW]
13F HoldingSTATE OF MICHIGAN RETIREMENT SYSTEM (CIK 0000762152): 2057867 shares ($761760K) +2057867 [NEW]
13F HoldingNISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC (CIK 0000937615): 2041035 shares ($755529K) +2041035 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+65

Bullish sweeps ($3.1B net) and low put/call ratio (0.44) indicate strong call demand. Open interest rose +171,090 contracts over 20 days, signaling accumulation. IV30D (27.4%) remains below HV30D (30.5%), suggesting underpriced volatility.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 55.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.90

Unlock agent-level analysis

See exactly what each AI agent found — forensic accounting flags, insider clusters, institutional shifts, and more.

Checking access…View pricing

Expression status: tradable

This signal passed the expression gate and has a trade plan attached.

Policy linkage: inferred company relevanceMechanism quality: absentPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

Trade Plan

Live Return

$407.77-3.1%

Entry: $420.77 · 4d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$415.00

$425.00

Valid until Jun 8, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$568.00+39.3%

Analyst consensus target ($568) represents 34.9% upside

Base

$500.00+22.6%

Conservative estimate based on 18% cloud/AI growth continuation

Bear

$380.00-6.8%

Breaks key support at $400 (52-week low + 15% buffer)

Stop Loss

$400.00

-1.9%

Position Size

2-3%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

4.0x

base target

Unlock the trade plan

Get entry zones, price targets, stop loss levels, and position sizing for every signal.

Checking access…View pricing

Get the full picture on MSFT

Our AI analyst team runs 5 specialized agents on every stock. Unlock detailed breakdowns, trade plans, and real-time alerts.

Start for $9/mo View pricing

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.