NFLX

NFLX AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+13

Direction mix

0 bullish0 bearish

May 11, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

Fundamentals show 23.9% YoY gross profit growth to $2.5B and a 341.8% analyst price target, but are offset by 4Q EPS misses and margin contraction risks. Options activity is strongly bullish (0.50 put/call ratio, $494.9M in large call sweeps), though institutional holders reduced $85.6B in value QoQ. The 6-quarter accumulation trend remains intact despite recent exits.

+13

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

+30

Gross profit grew 23.9% YoY to $2.5B, but 4Q EPS misses and margin contraction guidance (mid-2025) offset optimism. Analysts project 341.8% upside, but near-term execution risks persist.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
AI AnalysisLLM analysis: stable, tone shift 4.0
EarningsEPS miss: $1.25 vs $0.78 est (-10.2%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $387
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 29 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBearish

-50

Institutions added 21 new holders but total value dropped 85.6% QoQ despite consistent 6-quarter accumulation trend. New positions from high-quality institutions (NISA, State of Michigan) were offset by massive value erosion and 3 large institutional exits (>25% reductions).

Sources

13F HoldingGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS, GSCE, GS-PA, GS-PC, GS-PD) (CIK 0000886982): 24369449 shares ($2284879K) +24369449 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 1480377 shares ($1774853K) +1480377 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 1052743 shares ($981714K) +1052743 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 1083711 shares ($965933K) +1083711 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 944897 shares ($670187K) +944897 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+55

Bullish positioning dominates with 0.50 put/call volume ratio, 11 large bullish sweeps ($494.9M), and 42,073K rising call open interest over 21 days. Neutral skew and low IV/HV (0.75) suggest complacency rather than urgent hedging.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 42.9% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.75

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Not tradable yet

The policy signal lacks a specific causal mechanism, so it should not be treated as expression-ready.

Policy linkage: direct company evidenceMechanism quality: absentPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.