PEP

PEP AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

Direction mix

0 bullish0 bearish

May 11, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

Bullish options positioning ($104.6M in net bullish sweeps) and net institutional accumulation ($1.04B added by top-tier managers) suggest short-term momentum despite weak QoQ operating cash flow (-99.7% to $41M) and guidance misses. Elevated IV (23.1%, 38.5% percentile) supports near-term volatility, aligning with the 1m conviction of 44.

+59

+31

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

Gross profit rose 7.4% YoY but operating cash flow collapsed -99.7% QoQ to $41M. 4/4 EPS beats offset by 0% guidance hit rate and -78.9% QoQ gross profit decline.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — minor changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
EarningsEPS beat: $1.61 vs $1.57 est (+2.8%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $169
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 7 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell
Call TranscriptEarnings call sentiment: 0.70, deflections: 0
CredibilityManagement credibility: 0/100

Institutional AgentBullish

+40

Institutions added $1.04B in new PEP positions from three high-quality managers (CalPERS, Capital Advisors, Bahl & Gaynor) in Q1 2026, but three large holders reduced stakes by >25%. Net accumulation is evident, though conviction is mixed due to lack of large increases.

Sources

13F HoldingCALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM (CIK 0000919079): 3241048 shares ($503302K) +3241048 [NEW]
13F HoldingCAPITAL ADVISORS INC/OK (CIK 0000860828): 2224007 shares ($345366K) +2224007 [NEW]
13F HoldingBAHL & GAYNOR INC (CIK 0000872259): 1266056 shares ($196605K) +1266056 [NEW]
13F HoldingTRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC, TFC-PI, TFC-PO, TFC-PR) (CIK 0000092230): 575883 shares ($89428K) +575883 [NEW]
13F HoldingJOHNSON INVESTMENT COUNSEL INC (CIK 0000821197): 548387 shares ($85159K) +548387 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+50

Bullish positioning dominates with $104.6M net bullish sweeps and 0.77 put/call volume ratio over 48 hours. Open interest increased +1.65M contracts over 21 days while IV remains elevated at 23.1% (38.5% 52W percentile).

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 38.5% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.29

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$149.41-3.4%

Entry: $154.62 · 1d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$152.00

$157.00

Valid until Jun 11, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$170.00+13.8%

IV decay and short-term momentum above 154.62 support 11% upside

Base

$165.00+10.4%

Consolidation at 154.62-157.0 fair value before 1m horizon

Bear

$150.00+0.4%

Break below 150.0 would negate options-driven thesis

Stop Loss

$145.00

-3.0%

Position Size

2-3%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.1x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.