PSKY

PSKY AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-42

0/1

Mar 23, 2026

conviction

Bearish(medium)

Paramount Skydance posted a catastrophic EPS miss of over 1,200% last quarter with net income of -$586M, reflecting severe margin compression despite $12.3B in revenue. Operating income of -$95M alongside positive operating cash flow of $485M suggests the company is relying heavily on non-cash adjustments to obscure the true depth of earnings deterioration. Options flow corroborates the bearish fundamental picture: 15 bearish sweeps totaling $67.8K in the 48-hour window dwarfed 5 bullish sweeps with negligible dollar volume, signaling informed directional selling. The IV/HV dislocation (IV30D 54.7% vs HV30D 81.9%) and severe ATM put mispricing of -33.5% suggest structural stress rather than a recoverable setup.

-72

-62

-42

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-45

PSKY posted a catastrophic 1279.3% EPS miss last quarter with net income of -$586M against $12.3B revenue, indicating severe margin compression; only 2 of 4 recent quarters beat estimates, reflecting inconsistent execution. Operating income of -$95M alongside positive operating cash flow of $485M suggests significant non-cash adjustments masking underlying earnings weakness.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
EarningsEPS surprise: -1279.3% (est -0.01, actual -0.12)
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 1 buy, 16 hold, 4 sell, 4 strong sell

Options AgentBearish

-18

Despite a call-heavy volume ratio (0.61 P/C, 9,466 calls vs 5,783 puts) and negative put-call IV spread (-2.45% favoring calls), the 48-hour flow events reveal a net bearish $63K skew driven by 15 bearish sweeps totaling $67.8K against only 5 bullish sweeps with negligible dollar volume ($0.0M), indicating informed directional selling pressure. The IV/HV ratio of 0.67 (IV30D 54.7% vs HV30D 81.9%) suggests options are priced well below realized volatility, and the severe ATM put mispricing at -33.5% points to structural dislocation rather than clean bullish conviction.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 57.1% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.67

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$8.79-4.8%

Entry: $9.23 · 4d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$9.00

$9.40

Valid until Apr 3, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$10.20+16.0%

Short-covering rally or positive merger synergy announcement could push shares back toward $10 resistance.

Base

$8.10-7.8%

Continued earnings deterioration and bearish sweep activity drive shares toward $8 over 30 days, consistent with the 1m conviction.

Bear

$6.80-22.6%

Accelerating margin compression or negative guidance revision could trigger a flush toward $6.80, near post-merger lows.

Stop Loss

$10.05

+14.3%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.4x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.