RS AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-30

0/1

Mar 27, 2026

conviction

Bearish(medium)

Reliance Steel has posted earnings misses across all four consecutive quarters, with the most recent EPS miss of 17.8% reflecting persistent operational underperformance. Gross profit declined 11.4% YoY to $704M while operating cash flow collapsed 41.9% YoY to $831M, raising serious questions about near-term earnings power and capital allocation flexibility. The bullish options flow — $4.0M in call sweeps versus only $25.6K in bearish flow over 48 hours — introduces a meaningful short-term counterweight, but with IV at the 11th percentile of its 52-week range, this activity may reflect speculative positioning rather than informed hedging. The fundamental deterioration remains the dominant signal, and the options activity is insufficient to reverse the bearish medium-term outlook.

-14

-23

-30

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-52

Consistent earnings misses across all 4 quarters with the latest EPS miss of 17.8% signals persistent operational underperformance, compounded by gross profit declining 11.4% YoY to $704M and operating cash flow collapsing 41.9% YoY to $831M — a severe deterioration in cash generation that raises concerns about business model sustainability despite clean forensic accounting.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
EarningsEPS miss: $2.25 vs $2.92 est (-17.8%)

Options AgentBullish

+62

Dominant bullish signal driven by $4.0M in bullish sweeps versus only $25.6K in bearish flow over 48 hours, a net bullish imbalance of ~$3.98M, combined with a heavily call-skewed volume ratio of 0.27 (547 calls vs 145 puts) and call OI of 750 versus put OI of 142. IV at the 11.1st percentile of its 52-week range with an IV/HV ratio of 1.13 suggests options are modestly but not excessively priced, limiting hedging-driven distortion of the bullish read.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 11.1% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.13

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$299.59-0.0%

Entry: $299.60 · 1d elapsed / 30d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$295.00

$302.00

Valid until Apr 10, 2026

Price Targets (30-day)

Bull

$320.00+6.8%

Short squeeze or positive macro catalyst in materials drives mean reversion toward prior support levels around $320

Base

$285.00-4.9%

Continued fundamental weakness and no earnings catalyst drives gradual drift toward $285 over 30-60 days

Bear

$265.00-11.5%

Accelerating cash flow deterioration or macro headwind triggers breakdown toward $265 technical support

Stop Loss

$310.00

+3.5%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.5x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.