TGT

TGT AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-9

0/0

Mar 27, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

Target's fundamentals present a mixed picture: while the most recent quarter showed a 12.1% EPS beat, the company has only beaten estimates in 2 of the past 4 quarters, reflecting inconsistent execution. Operating cash flow declined 10.9% YoY to $6.6B, a concrete deterioration in cash generation quality that undermines the earnings beat narrative. Options flow adds a modest bearish lean with $67.4K in bearish sweeps and significantly overpriced ATM puts (30.7% vs 17.6% mispricing), suggesting hedging demand from institutional participants. With no clear near-term catalyst and conflicting signals across timeframes, the risk/reward does not favor a directional position at current levels.

-1

-6

-9

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

-5

TGT posted a 12.1% EPS beat last quarter but has only beaten in 2 of the past 4 quarters, indicating inconsistent execution. The gross profit figure of $20.8B showing +301.2% YoY is almost certainly a data anomaly or base-effect distortion rather than genuine outperformance, while operating cash flow declining 10.9% YoY to $6.6B is a concrete negative signal on cash generation quality.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
EarningsEPS beat: $2.44 vs $2.18 est (+12.1%)

Options AgentBearish

-12

Options flow shows a modest bearish lean driven by $67.4K in bearish sweeps versus negligible bullish sweep dollar volume over 48 hours, and ATM puts are significantly overpriced relative to calls (30.7% vs 17.6% mispricing), suggesting hedging demand; however, the call-heavy skew (put-call IV spread of -7.66%) and volume ratio of 0.86 partially offset the bearish signal.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 44.4% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.18

Unlock agent-level analysis

See exactly what each AI agent found — forensic accounting flags, insider clusters, institutional shifts, and more.

Get started View pricing

Trade Plan

Live Return

$119.84+2.4%

Entry: $117.00 · 1d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Above entry

$114.00

$118.00

Valid until Apr 10, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$130.00+8.5%

Recovery in consumer spending and two consecutive earnings beats could drive re-rating toward prior resistance near $130.

Base

$120.00+0.1%

Modest stabilization in cash flow trends and in-line execution support a drift toward $120 over the medium term.

Bear

$108.00-9.9%

Continued cash flow deterioration or a miss in the next earnings report could pressure shares toward $108, near recent support.

Stop Loss

$110.00

-8.2%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.5x

base target

Unlock the trade plan

Get entry zones, price targets, stop loss levels, and position sizing for every signal.

Get started View pricing

Get the full picture on TGT

Our AI analyst team runs 5 specialized agents on every stock. Unlock detailed breakdowns, trade plans, and real-time alerts.

Start for $9/mo View pricing

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.