TSLA

TSLA AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-12

0/0

Mar 20, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

Tesla's fundamentals reflect deteriorating profitability, with gross profit declining 2.0% YoY to $17.1B and earnings beats in only 1 of 4 recent quarters, indicating inconsistent execution rather than a recovery. Margin compression persists even as management pivots the 10-K narrative toward AI-driven services, a segment with no demonstrated revenue contribution and meaningful execution risk. Options flow shows a near-neutral put/call ratio of 0.97 with IV at the 25th percentile, suggesting the market is not pricing significant near-term movement, while the detected ATM put mispricing of 61.3% implies downside risk may be underpriced. With no meaningful policy catalyst and no institutional or insider signal data available, the risk-reward skews modestly bearish on a fundamental basis.

-7

-9

-12

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-12

TSLA shows a single-quarter EPS beat of 9.7% but has only beaten in 1 of 4 recent quarters, indicating inconsistent earnings execution; gross profit of $17.1B represents a -2.0% YoY decline, signaling margin compression rather than fundamental strength. The 10-K narrative shift toward AI-driven services introduces execution risk without demonstrated revenue contribution, and while forensic accounting is clean, that is the baseline expectation, not a positive signal.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
AI AnalysisLLM analysis: stable, tone shift -1.7
EarningsEPS beat: $0.26 vs $0.46 est (+9.7%)

Policy AgentNeutral

The Feb 17 Notice of Availability regarding designation of Chinese Military Companies has marginal indirect relevance to TSLA's automobile operations, potentially affecting supply chain sourcing from Chinese-linked entities, but no direct regulatory action targeting TSLA or the EV sector is present in the current policy pipeline. With zero bullish and zero bearish policy trend signals, there is no meaningful policy catalyst in either direction.

Sources

PolicyNotice of Availability of Designation of Chinese Military Companies

Options AgentNeutral

-3

Options flow analysis: IV at 25.0% percentile (52-week). P/C ratio: 0.97. Detected unusual volume activity (volume > 3x open interest). ATM mispricing detected (call: -5.9%, put: 61.3%).

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 25.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.26

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$361.83-4.9%

Entry: $380.30 · 8d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$372.00

$385.00

Valid until Apr 3, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$410.00+13.3%

A short-term sentiment rally or positive AI/autonomy announcement could push shares back toward recent resistance near $410.

Base

$345.00-4.7%

Continued margin compression and lack of earnings consistency drive a reversion toward $345, reflecting fair value on deteriorating fundamentals over 6 months.

Bear

$295.00-18.5%

Accelerated margin deterioration or a macro risk-off environment could pressure shares toward $295, near prior technical support.

Stop Loss

$402.00

+11.1%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

2.1x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.