TSM

TSM AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+95

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 9, 2026

conviction

Bullish(high)

TSM's fundamentals show 4/4 EPS beats with a forensic score of 100/100, supported by 6 insider purchases and 4 quarters of institutional accumulation. While policy-driven compliance costs (1-2% margin compression) pose near-term risks, the $259 consensus price target reflects undervaluation relative to the current $414 price. Strong balance sheet and 17B/6H analyst ratings suggest upside potential despite valuation gaps.

+64

+88

+95

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+60

TSM has beaten EPS estimates in 4/4 quarters (4.5% last quarter) with clean accounting (100/100 forensic score). Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish (17B/6H/0S) despite a $259 price target 37.4% below current price, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to consensus. Risks include valuation gap and execution consistency.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
EarningsEPS beat: $22.08 vs $21.14 est (+4.5%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $259
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 17 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBullish

+100

6 insider open-market purchases ($284K total) vs 0 sales with insider cluster activity suggest confidence in the company.

Sources

Insider TradeTien Bor-Zen buy 10 shares
Insider TradeHwang Yuan-Ko buy 51 shares
Insider TradeHuang Jen-Chau buy 37 shares
Insider TradeTien Bor-Zen buy 53 shares
Insider TradeYuan Lipen buy 52 shares
Insider TradeCao Min buy 66 shares
Insider TradeLiaw Yung-Haw buy 61 shares
Insider TradeMii Yuh-Jier buy 88 shares
Insider TradeLu Lee-Chung buy 65 shares
Insider TradeHsu Kuo-Chin buy 66 shares
Insider TradeJang Syun-Ming buy 62 shares
Insider TradeWu Shien-Yang buy 71 shares
Insider TradeChang Tzonz-Sheng buy 67 shares
Insider TradeYeap Choh Fei buy 68 shares
Insider TradeChuang Tzu-Sou buy 58 shares
Insider TradeChuang Juiping buy 62 shares
Insider TradeFang Shu-Hua buy 70 shares
Insider TradeChen Chih-Ho buy 40 shares
Insider TradeHou Yung-Chin buy 78 shares
Insider TradeLin Shyue-Shyh buy 58 shares
Insider TradeWei Che-Chia buy 186 shares
Insider TradeWang Ying-Lang buy 69 shares
Insider TradeHe Jun buy 58 shares
Insider TradeChin Yung-Pei buy 89 shares
Insider TradeYoo Chue-San buy 65 shares
Insider TradeLee Chun-Hsien buy 63 shares
Insider TradeZhang Kevin Xiaoqiang buy 79 shares
Insider TradeLin Chris Horng-Dar buy 60 shares
Insider TradeChen Pei-Hung buy 57 shares
Insider TradeBURNS URSULA M buy 1000 shares
Insider TradeLin Shyue-Shyh buy 3000 shares
Insider TradeYeap Choh Fei buy 1000 shares
Insider TradeLin Shyue-Shyh buy 2000 shares
Insider TradeTien Bor-Zen buy 1000 shares

Institutional AgentBullish

+58

Institutional accumulation detected: 10 institutions tracked across 4 quarters. 16 new positions initiated. Institutional accumulation streak: 4 consecutive quarters.

Sources

13F HoldingAEGON ASSET MANAGEMENT UK PLC (CIK 0001539994): 534903 shares ($179525K) +534903 [NEW]
13F HoldingAdvisorNet Financial, Inc (CIK 0001409362): 20718 shares ($7001K) +20718 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 34215 shares ($6757K) +34215 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 36815 shares ($6398K) +36815 [NEW]
13F HoldingDANSKE BANK A/S (CIK 0000800177): 35815 shares ($6219K) +35815 [NEW]

Options AgentNeutral

+22

Mixed signals: High IV (89th percentile) and bearish OI skew (put/call OI 1.18) suggest hedging demand, but recent net bullish sweeps ($148.7M) imply short-term accumulation. Neutral skew and ATM IV parity indicate no strong directional volatility bias.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 89.2% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.99

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Not tradable yet

The policy evidence is too sector-level and does not tie cleanly enough to this company.

Policy linkage: sector-only evidenceMechanism quality: specificPolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.