TXN

TXN AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

Direction mix

0 bullish0 bearish

May 10, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

TXN [neutral, low confidence]: Gross profit collapsed QoQ -72.2% to $2.8B despite 21.0% YoY growth, indicating near-term demand weakness. Valuation appears stretched with analyst target $263 (-8.7% vs price). TXN's automotive semiconductor segment could benefit from updated FMVSS standards (Mar 16) requiring advanced vehicle lighting/lens tech, though compliance costs for emission regulations (Mar 10) may offset gains. The 6-month horizon aligns with potential demand increases from modernized safety standards. Three institutions added new positions in Q1 2026, but the 0.0% ownership changes suggest minimal conviction. Total institutional value ($18M) is modest and lacks trend consistency without prior data. Bullish flow dominates with $48.6M in bullish sweeps vs $36.5K bearish sweeps in 48h, while OI trends +1094K over 19 days. IV30D (39.1%) lags HV30D (58.2%) suggesting potential volatility catch-up, and ATM call/put mispricing (-30%/-38.6%) indicates discounted demand.

-11

-3

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-45

Gross profit collapsed QoQ -72.2% to $2.8B despite 21.0% YoY growth, indicating near-term demand weakness. Valuation appears stretched with analyst target $263 (-8.7% vs price).

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — moderate changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — minor changes
EarningsEPS beat: $1.68 vs $1.38 est (+21.6%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $263
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 15 buy, 9 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBullish

+20

Three institutions added new positions in Q1 2026, but the 0.0% ownership changes suggest minimal conviction. Total institutional value ($18M) is modest and lacks trend consistency without prior data.

Sources

13F HoldingGoodman Advisory Group, LLC (CIK 0001864123): 10510 shares ($2040K) +10510 [NEW]
13F HoldingEthos Financial Group, LLC (CIK 0001954242): 2147 shares ($416K) +2147 [NEW]
13F HoldingFirst Bank & Trust (CIK 0001692632): 2079 shares ($403K) +2079 [NEW]
13F HoldingWashington Trust Advisors, Inc. (CIK 0001900099): 1900 shares ($368K) +1900 [NEW]
13F HoldingCENTRAL BANK & TRUST CO (CIK 0001175954): 1278 shares ($248K) +1278 [NEW]

Options AgentBullish

+50

Bullish flow dominates with $48.6M in bullish sweeps vs $36.5K bearish sweeps in 48h, while OI trends +1094K over 19 days. IV30D (39.1%) lags HV30D (58.2%) suggesting potential volatility catch-up, and ATM call/put mispricing (-30%/-38.6%) indicates discounted demand.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 75.0% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.67

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Not tradable yet

The policy evidence is too sector-level and does not tie cleanly enough to this company.

Policy linkage: sector-only evidenceMechanism quality: vaguePolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.