UPS

UPS AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+18

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 11, 2026

conviction

Bullish(low)

UPS shows divergent signals: while operating cash flow declined 4.1% YoY and 73.7% QoQ (liquidity concern), 3/4 quarters exceeded EPS estimates and analysts target $117 (16.6% upside). Institutional buyers added $185M in Q1, but bearish options flow ($21.9M net bearish) and elevated historical volatility (40.5% HV30D) suggest near-term risk. Thesis hinges on earnings momentum overcoming near-term liquidity and volatility headwinds.

+20

+26

+18

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

+20

Mixed signals: Operating cash flow declined 4.1% YoY and 73.7% QoQ (indicating liquidity stress), but EPS beat 3.8% and 3/4 quarters exceeded estimates. Analysts target $117 (16.6% upside) despite split ratings (9B/12H/3S).

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
EarningsEPS beat: $1.07 vs $1.03 est (+3.8%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $117
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 1 strong buy, 8 buy, 12 hold, 3 sell, 0 strong sell

Institutional AgentBullish

+40

Three new institutional positions totaling $185M were added in Q1 2026, led by Manning & Napier Advisors ($182M). No significant share percentage changes indicate accumulation at stable prices, but lack of prior trend consistency limits conviction.

Sources

13F HoldingMANNING & NAPIER ADVISORS LLC (CIK 0000062039): 1852919 shares ($182290K) +1852919 [NEW]
13F HoldingWashington Trust Advisors, Inc. (CIK 0001900099): 21125 shares ($2078K) +21125 [NEW]
13F HoldingLORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA (CIK 0000932974): 3364 shares ($342K) +3364 [NEW]
13F HoldingFirst Financial Bank - Trust Division (CIK 0001315339): 2522 shares ($248K) +2522 [NEW]
13F HoldingADIRONDACK TRUST CO (CIK 0001054257): 825 shares ($81K) +825 [NEW]

Options AgentBearish

-40

Net bearish flow events ($21.9M) dominate despite 1-day bullish accumulation. Low IV30D (27.4%) vs. high HV30D (40.5%) suggests potential IV expansion and bearish positioning. ATM call mispricing (-45.1%) may attract buyers, but bearish sweep volume (9x $31.5M) indicates short-term risk.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 9.5% percentile, IV/HV ratio 0.68

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$100.00-0.1%

Entry: $100.15 · 1d elapsed / 90d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$98.00

$102.00

Valid until Jun 11, 2026

Price Targets (90-day)

Bull

$117.00+17.0%

Analyst consensus target of $117 (16.6% upside)

Base

$110.00+10.0%

Mean reversion to 52-week high of $112

Bear

$95.00-5.0%

Breaks 50-day MA ($97.40) with volume expansion

Stop Loss

$94.00

-6.0%

Position Size

2-3%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.7x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.