UPS

UPS AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-12

0/0

Mar 27, 2026

conviction

Neutral(low)

UPS faces meaningful fundamental headwinds, with operating cash flow declining 24.4% year-over-year to $5.1B despite a modest 7.0% EPS beat — suggesting earnings quality concerns as cash generation deteriorates. The 3/4 quarterly beat rate reflects in-line large-cap execution rather than an improving business trajectory. Insider activity shows a single sell transaction with no offsetting buys over the trailing 90 days, a weakly bearish but low-conviction signal. Options flow offers a modest bullish lean via call-heavy skew and 16 bullish sweeps totaling $100K, but net dollar flow of just $8K and IV30D at only the 44th percentile of its 52-week range provide insufficient counterweight to the fundamental deterioration.

-1

-7

-12

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentNeutral

-5

UPS posted a modest 7.0% EPS beat with a 3/4 quarterly beat rate, which is in-line with typical large-cap execution and not a standout signal; however, the severe 24.4% year-over-year decline in operating cash flow to $5.1B raises meaningful concern about underlying business deterioration despite the sequential QoQ recovery of 93.1%.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
EarningsEPS beat: $2.10 vs $2.22 est (+7.0%)

Insider AgentBearish

-15

A single sell transaction with no offsetting buys over the past 90 days produces a buy/sell ratio of 0.00, indicating mild bearish insider sentiment; however, the signal is weak given only one transaction and a $0K reported value, suggesting a small or plan-based disposition rather than a conviction-driven exit.

Sources

Insider TradeBrothers Norman M. Jr sell 0 shares

Options AgentBullish

Options flow shows a modest net bullish lean driven by call-heavy skew (ATM call IV 43.3% vs put IV 37.5%, spread of -5.83%) and 16 bullish sweeps totaling $100K against only 4 bearish sweeps at $70.3K, though net dollar flow is a thin $8K — limiting conviction. IV30D at 33.0% sits at only the 44th percentile of its 52-week range with an IV/HV ratio of 1.25, suggesting modest premium expansion without extreme fear or greed.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 44.4% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.25

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$94.80-2.8%

Entry: $97.50 · 1d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

Below entry

$95.00

$99.00

Valid until Apr 10, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$108.00+13.9%

Recovery in operating cash flow trajectory and macro tailwinds could push shares back toward 52-week resistance near $108.

Base

$93.00-1.9%

Continued cash flow pressure and muted volume growth keep shares range-bound with modest downside drift toward $93 support.

Bear

$82.00-13.5%

Accelerating cash flow deterioration or macro-driven volume decline could break support and push shares toward $82, a meaningful valuation reset.

Stop Loss

$103.50

+9.2%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.4x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.