VSAT

VSAT AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data

1signals

avg conviction-22

0/1

Mar 22, 2026

conviction

Bearish(low)

Viasat operates a capital-intensive satellite business generating net losses of -$93M despite an EPS beat, with persistent unprofitability undermining the cash flow improvement narrative. Insider activity shows a $724K sale with zero buys over 90 days, while institutional ownership data reveals a catastrophic -91.1% quarter-over-quarter value decline to just $221M held by 3 institutions — signaling extremely thin conviction from sophisticated capital. CIRCIA compliance obligations add incremental cost burden without revenue offset, and while options flow shows bullish call positioning with ATM calls appearing underpriced, the historically low IV at the 8.7th percentile and neutral skew limit the signal's reliability as a standalone bullish catalyst.

-12

-20

-22

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBearish

-15

Despite a large EPS beat and strong operating cash flow growth, VSAT remains deeply unprofitable with net income of -$93M, and the high filing similarity scores in financial notes (69%, 53%) alongside boilerplate MDA language suggest limited disclosure transparency. The cash flow improvement is notable but must be weighed against persistent losses and a capital-intensive satellite business model.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeMda — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — significant changes
Filing ChangeMda — significant changes
EarningsEPS surprise: 146.7% (est -0.39, actual 0.18)

Insider AgentBearish

-42

A single insider sell of $724K filed 4 days ago (Mar 18) with zero buys over the 90-day window produces a 0.00 buy/sell ratio, indicating net insider distribution with no offsetting accumulation signal.

Sources

Insider TradeBlair Robert James sell 19338 shares

Institutional AgentBearish

-45

Despite a 5-quarter trend label of consistent accumulation, the data shows a catastrophic -91.1% QoQ value decline with only 3 institutions holding $221M total, and the top two holders are duplicate entries for the same entity (Rockefeller Capital Management, CIK 0001739439) adding a combined 6,427 shares at near-zero percentage change — indicating extremely thin and concentrated ownership rather than genuine institutional conviction. The quarter designation '2025-Q10' is anomalous and raises data integrity concerns.

Sources

13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 400000 shares ($4168000K) +400000 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 191306 shares ($2284193K) +191306 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 194494 shares ($2026628K) +194494 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 215137 shares ($1830817K) +215137 [NEW]
13F HoldingBARCLAYS PLC (BCS, BCLYF) (CIK 0000312069): 100000 shares ($1042000K) +100000 [NEW]

Policy AgentBearish

-12

CIRCIA rulemaking imposes new mandatory cyber incident reporting obligations on critical infrastructure operators including satellite communications providers like VSAT, creating compliance cost burdens and potential liability exposure without near-term revenue offset. The regulation signals increased federal scrutiny of communications sector cybersecurity posture, which disproportionately affects operators of complex satellite network infrastructure.

Sources

PolicyCyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act (CIRCIA) Rulemaking; Town Hall Meetings

Options AgentBullish

+18

Call volume dominates at 3,471 vs. 1,529 puts (0.44 put/call ratio) with call OI of 66,104 dwarfing put OI of 18,489, indicating sustained bullish positioning; however, IV30D of 77.2% sits at only the 8.7th 52-week percentile, suggesting options are historically cheap and limiting conviction on directional bets. ATM call mispricing of -52.5% (underpriced) vs. ATM put mispricing of +60.2% (overpriced) creates an asymmetric setup favoring call buyers, though the near-flat IV/HV ratio of 1.02 and neutral skew (-0.13%) temper aggressive bullish reads.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 8.7% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.02

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Trade Plan

Live Return

$46.58+0.4%

Entry: $46.39 · 5d elapsed / 180d horizon

Tracking

Entry Zone

In entry zone

$44.50

$47.50

Valid until Apr 5, 2026

Price Targets (180-day)

Bull

$55.00+18.1%

Options-driven short squeeze or positive satellite contract announcement could push shares toward prior resistance near $55.

Base

$40.00-14.1%

Continued operating losses and thin institutional support pressure shares toward $40 over 6 months as capital allocation concerns mount.

Bear

$30.00-35.6%

Deteriorating fundamentals combined with CIRCIA compliance costs and institutional exit could drive shares to $30, near book-value support.

Stop Loss

$51.00

+9.5%

Position Size

1-2%

of portfolio

Risk/Reward

1.5x

base target

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.