WMT

WMT AI Signal Analysis

Multi-agent conviction signals powered by SEC filings, insider trades, institutional holdings, and earnings data.

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Signals

Avg conviction

+18

Direction mix

1 bullish0 bearish

May 11, 2026

conviction

Bullish(low)

WMT's fundamentals show consistent earnings strength with 3/4 quarters beating estimates and a 0.9% EPS beat in Q4, supported by a $134 analyst target (2.5% upside). Clean accounting and 100/100 forensic score reduce downside risk. However, insider selling ($3.05M in 90 days, including CEO activity) and bearish options flow ($4.4M net bearish) create counterpressure.

+13

+18

Agent Breakdown

Fundamentals AgentBullish

+55

WMT shows consistent earnings strength with 3/4 quarters beating estimates, including a 0.9% last-quarter EPS beat. The $134 analyst target (2.5% upside) and 29B/1H/0S rating suggest valuation support. Clean accounting and 100/100 forensic score reduce downside risk.

Sources

ForensicForensic score: 100/100 (0 flags)
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — minor changes
Filing ChangeLegal Proceedings — significant changes
Filing ChangeRisk Factors — minor changes
Filing ChangeBusiness — moderate changes
Filing ChangeFinancial Notes — significant changes
EarningsEPS beat: $0.74 vs $0.73 est (+0.9%)
Analyst TargetAnalyst consensus target: $134
Analyst RatingAnalyst consensus: 0 strong buy, 29 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell

Insider AgentBearish

-68

No insider buying vs $3.05M in selling over 90 days, including a $1.6M CEO sale (Furner) and clustered selling by 2 insiders. Zero buy/sell ratio and lack of follow-through on prior guidance raises concerns.

Sources

Insider TradeWatkins Latriece tax 0 shares
Insider TradeDallaire Seth tax 0 shares
Insider TradeGuggina David W tax 0 shares
Insider TradeGuggina David W tax 0 shares
Insider TradeDallaire Seth tax 0 shares
Insider TradeMcMillon C Douglas sell 19416 shares
Insider TradeWalton Family Holdings Trust sell 299237 shares
Insider TradeFurner John R. sell 13125 shares

Institutional AgentBullish

+40

Institutions added $8.6B in new WMT positions from Fisher Asset Management, JENNISON, and CalPERS in Q1 2026, though all showed 0.0% portfolio weight changes. No large increases (>25%) but one large decrease offset the accumulation.

Sources

13F HoldingFisher Asset Management, LLC (CIK 0000850529): 40977756 shares ($5092715K) +40977756 [NEW]
13F HoldingJENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC (CIK 0000053417): 19550698 shares ($2429760K) +19550698 [NEW]
13F HoldingCALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM (CIK 0000919079): 8775480 shares ($1090616K) +8775480 [NEW]
13F HoldingTRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC, TFC-PI, TFC-PO, TFC-PR) (CIK 0000092230): 2119611 shares ($263425K) +2119611 [NEW]
13F HoldingTRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC, TFC-PI, TFC-PO, TFC-PR) (CIK 0000092230): 1572057 shares ($195375K) +1572057 [NEW]

Options AgentBearish

-35

High IV30D (32.7%) vs. low HV30D (23.1%) and 87th percentile volatility suggest overpriced risk, while net bearish $4.4M in flow events and higher put OI (478k vs. 410k calls) imply hedging pressure. Neutral skew and ATM mispricing show no directional bias.

Sources

IV DataIV metrics: 87.2% percentile, IV/HV ratio 1.41

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Not tradable yet

The policy signal lacks a specific causal mechanism, so it should not be treated as expression-ready.

Policy linkage: direct company evidenceMechanism quality: vaguePolicy evidence excluded from conviction

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Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.